Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 1.469377 1.533403 1.599818 1.674073 1.755039 1.840949 1.939392
2026-02-01 1.382995 1.467530 1.558061 1.662858 1.781647 1.913122 2.071084
2026-02-08 1.318819 1.416354 1.523271 1.650308 1.798691 1.968565 2.180859
2026-02-15 1.266531 1.373108 1.492119 1.636548 1.809504 2.013300 2.276986
2026-02-22 1.232964 1.348063 1.478752 1.640470 1.838708 2.078861 2.400465
2026-03-01 1.184321 1.302555 1.438392 1.608832 1.821346 2.084144 2.445425
2026-03-08 1.146510 1.267794 1.408647 1.587679 1.814509 2.100600 2.504146
2026-03-15 1.116608 1.240978 1.386889 1.574640 1.816217 2.126853 2.576448
2026-03-22 1.106337 1.237039 1.392271 1.595033 1.860968 2.211374 2.735726
2026-03-29 1.100562 1.238026 1.403303 1.622499 1.915716 2.312128 2.927168
2026-04-05 1.079902 1.219813 1.389462 1.616851 1.925297 2.350079 3.026978
2026-04-12 1.063040 1.205663 1.380049 1.616276 1.941252 2.397366 3.144866
2026-04-19 1.033320 1.175128 1.349489 1.587365 1.917751 2.387548 3.172769
2026-04-26 1.014004 1.157123 1.334349 1.578346 1.921447 2.417731 3.269294
2026-05-03 0.995051 1.139006 1.318412 1.567467 1.921678 2.442250 3.358093
2026-05-10 0.976586 1.120989 1.302001 1.555193 1.919068 2.461833 3.439684
2026-05-17 0.965698 1.112324 1.297451 1.558861 1.939540 2.518265 3.593895
2026-05-24 0.942395 1.087081 1.270322 1.530124 1.910632 2.493932 3.593250
2026-05-31 0.923843 1.067619 1.250404 1.510873 1.895093 2.490292 3.632111
2026-06-07 0.908970 1.052626 1.236063 1.498994 1.890083 2.503429 3.705238
2026-06-14 0.906439 1.053647 1.243114 1.517589 1.932132 2.597342 3.954572
2026-06-21 0.906380 1.057840 1.254455 1.542600 1.985185 2.713974 4.272800
2026-06-28 0.895366 1.047254 1.245335 1.537461 1.990330 2.746877 4.409628